Home Building Geography Index (HBGI)
The Home Building Geography Index (HBGI) is a quarterly measurement of building conditions across the country and uses county-level information about single-family and multifamily permits to gauge housing construction growth in various submarkets. The HBGI for the fourth quarter of 2024 focuses on the population density-based delineation of home building that has been the mainstay of the HBGI.
Key Findings for Q4 2024
- 2024 ended with growth in single-family construction, as a lack of existing inventory continues to drive demand for new construction.
- This was the fourth consecutive quarter during which the HBGI for single-family continued to post positive results. With interest rates expected to move lower in the second half of 2025, new construction is likely to continue growing this year.
- Multifamily construction was mostly negative across high-density areas, which represent the largest segments of the market. These high-density areas have seen seven consecutive quarters of contraction after expanding to record highs in 2022. Many of the multifamily units that were started during the record highs in 2022 are starting to reach completion.
- The large number of multifamily completions reaching the market should help to alleviate the sticky shelter inflation level that continues to outpace overall inflation.
Labor shortages and higher mortgage rates continue to be issues for the single-family and multifamily markets in fourth quarter of 2024. Tailwinds of an easing regulatory environment and tax cuts could help spur construction, but headwinds of higher government deficits and potential tariffs may offset gains from any positives in the coming year.
Download the data file of the full HBGI findings
Regional Building Growth Conditions
NAHB classified all counties in the U.S. as one of seven regional categories based on population density and regional location. For each area, NAHB tracked single-family and multifamily growth rates (not seasonally adjusted) and market shares.
